The late prominent Nigerian author Chinua Achebe once wrote in his book that "Nigerians will probably achieve consensus on no other matter than their common resentment of the Igbo."*
I recently read the book "There was a country," and thoroughly enjoyed learning about Achebe's life before and during the Nigeria-Biafra war (Nigerian civil war from 1967-1970). And when I read the aforementioned quote, I believed that sentiment. I couldn't come up with any counterpoints. That was truly disappointing.
Late last week, the Oba (King) of Lagos made a comment saying that Igbos (whom I have shown in my previous two posts voted overwhelmingly for the PDP party during the 2015 presidential elections) would perish in the Lagoon if they did not vote for the APC (the opposition party) Lagos governorship candidate. His attempts to backtrack from his comment were also a disaster. He said "Lagos has also not betrayed the Igbo people. Lagos has done so much to make the Igbos comfortable and to prosper. For this, we expect reciprocal respect and understanding."
Lagos did not do and has not done anything to make the Igbos feel safer. Lagos should not have to do anything specific to make the Igbos feel safer. Lagos just has to do whatever it takes to make Lagosians feel comfortable, whether they are Igbos, Yorubas etc. etc. Igbos did not seek any specific favors from the Oba. Whatever Lagos has done to make Lagosians prosper, the Igbos have also benefited. For those non-Nigerians reading this, the Oba's comment are like saying. "The city of New York has not betrayed the black people in New York, and has done a lot to make the Black people comfortable and to prosper, and so the black people should reciprocate and vote a certain candidate." That is the sheer definition of stupidity.
Before the Nigerian civil war, Lagos (and the Oba) did not attempt to protect Igbos that were being murdered and forced to relocate to the Eastern region. Stirring up comments like the Oba's doesn't do Igbos and Nigerians any good. Many Igbos and their families lost everything during the war, and had to rebuild their lives when they moved to Lagos. Lagos state government, and the Oba (to my knowledge) did not do anything specific to make the Igbos as a group feel more comfortable. No laws or special favors were made to accommodate the Igbos. Igbos had to fight for their livelihoods, and were treated like any other tribal group (like they should). Therefore, they should not and cannot be threatened to vote for the candidate of the Oba's choice.
Please, I should not hear anyone defending the Oba's comments, and I should not hear anyone agreeing with the Oba. Because, all that does is confirm Chinua Achebe's comments about Nigerians' common resentment of the Igbos.
Disclaimer: I am an Igbo.
* Chinua Achebe's novel "There was a country." It is a great read. Would recommend it for anyone who wants more information about Nigeria's history etc.
Friday, April 10, 2015
Monday, April 6, 2015
Did the Igbos hedge the wrong bet?
The 2015 Nigerian elections have been nothing short of exciting. I was glued to Channels TV during the entire election process. I know many people were. Never before has the recitation of random numbers being so exciting!
My first thoughts when the results were revealed was mainly on the Igbo and Igbo-leaning states. Here, I consider these Igbo leaning states to be the South-south and South-east states. As the graph below shows, the Igbos almost unanimously supported the PDP, and despite that, the PDP lost. About 90 percent of the Igbos voted for the PDP, and they accounted for over 50 percent of the PDP votes (see previous post). When it comes to national elections, it's hard for the Igbos to make a significant dent. They just don't have the numbers.
Why does this matter?
This is because in a time of fair elections (at least two dominant parties), it makes no logistical sense for a national party to nominate an Igbo for president. As long as there is a Northerner who can garner his Northern brethren and then split the Yoruba vote, he will win. The odds are against the Igbo candidate. Winning the Igbo vote and splitting the Yoruba vote doesn't work (the 2015 election is an example).
This is the reason I believe the Igbos hedged all their bets on the PDP. If the PDP won, Nigeria would largely remain a one-party state. If the PDP continues their rotation policy (where the presidential candidate is rotated from the different political zones), then an Igbo presidential candidate can eventually emerge. Over 90% of Igbo leaning states voted PDP! I don't think they voted because they all loved Jonathan (some definitely did). They voted that way because having only one dominant party with a rotation policy was the easiest way to Aso Rock.
How can we have an Igbo president then?
But, the Igbos hedged the wrong bet. The days of a one party state looks to be over now. For an Igbo president to emerge, he/she has to be ideologically different. He cannot afford to run an election where the only difference between him and his opponent is his tribal group. The Northerner would always come out on top. In addition to having a very different ideology, he/she must also have done something in the North. By this I mean, he was a minister in a Northern state or acted in some high level position in the North. This can give him the exposure to engender some Northern votes. OR get a high level (and popular) Northern figure as the vice presidential candidate. If an Igbo candidate were to get Sanusi Lamido Sanusi as the vice presidential candidate, then that presidential ticket has a great chance.
Some will say "why does it matter to have an Igbo president? We are ONE Nigeria." To simply answer that, it matters. An entire region cannot be neglected when it comes to choosing the country's leaders. The last Igbo Nigerian leader was General Aguiyi-Ironsi, who ruled for 194 days, and the Igbo leader before that was the ceremonial president Nnamdi Azikiwe.
*Igbo refers to all voters from South-east and South-south political zones. Yoruba refers to all voters from South-west. Hausa refers to all voters from North-west/central/east. Also, other political parties other than PDP and APC were not considered. Of course, I ignored the fact that the states in these voting regions have different composition of trial groups within.
My first thoughts when the results were revealed was mainly on the Igbo and Igbo-leaning states. Here, I consider these Igbo leaning states to be the South-south and South-east states. As the graph below shows, the Igbos almost unanimously supported the PDP, and despite that, the PDP lost. About 90 percent of the Igbos voted for the PDP, and they accounted for over 50 percent of the PDP votes (see previous post). When it comes to national elections, it's hard for the Igbos to make a significant dent. They just don't have the numbers.
Figure 1. Percentage of each tribal group voting for each party. Shows that over 90% of Igbo-leaning voters voted for the PDP.*
Why does this matter?
This is because in a time of fair elections (at least two dominant parties), it makes no logistical sense for a national party to nominate an Igbo for president. As long as there is a Northerner who can garner his Northern brethren and then split the Yoruba vote, he will win. The odds are against the Igbo candidate. Winning the Igbo vote and splitting the Yoruba vote doesn't work (the 2015 election is an example).
This is the reason I believe the Igbos hedged all their bets on the PDP. If the PDP won, Nigeria would largely remain a one-party state. If the PDP continues their rotation policy (where the presidential candidate is rotated from the different political zones), then an Igbo presidential candidate can eventually emerge. Over 90% of Igbo leaning states voted PDP! I don't think they voted because they all loved Jonathan (some definitely did). They voted that way because having only one dominant party with a rotation policy was the easiest way to Aso Rock.
How can we have an Igbo president then?
But, the Igbos hedged the wrong bet. The days of a one party state looks to be over now. For an Igbo president to emerge, he/she has to be ideologically different. He cannot afford to run an election where the only difference between him and his opponent is his tribal group. The Northerner would always come out on top. In addition to having a very different ideology, he/she must also have done something in the North. By this I mean, he was a minister in a Northern state or acted in some high level position in the North. This can give him the exposure to engender some Northern votes. OR get a high level (and popular) Northern figure as the vice presidential candidate. If an Igbo candidate were to get Sanusi Lamido Sanusi as the vice presidential candidate, then that presidential ticket has a great chance.
Some will say "why does it matter to have an Igbo president? We are ONE Nigeria." To simply answer that, it matters. An entire region cannot be neglected when it comes to choosing the country's leaders. The last Igbo Nigerian leader was General Aguiyi-Ironsi, who ruled for 194 days, and the Igbo leader before that was the ceremonial president Nnamdi Azikiwe.
*Igbo refers to all voters from South-east and South-south political zones. Yoruba refers to all voters from South-west. Hausa refers to all voters from North-west/central/east. Also, other political parties other than PDP and APC were not considered. Of course, I ignored the fact that the states in these voting regions have different composition of trial groups within.
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
The all-powerful North
It has been almost two years since my last blog post. But, the Nigerian elections have been too captivating for me to lay shallow for too long. I will be discussing some of my thoughts regarding the elections and what it means for our future.
It is official now. The General has replaced Goodluck. I am too excited that Nigeria's democracy has matured to the point where an incumbent can be removed from office. Since I love numbers, I collated all the voting numbers to see how the All Progressives Congress (APC) won. The graphs shows that the North remains all-powerful.
Of the APC voters, the Hausa/Fulani leaning states contributed about 80% (Figure 2) of the total APC vote. 80%! This shows that the Muslim-dominated North was mainly responsible for bringing APC to power. This is despite the fact that the Hausa/Fulani consist of 58% of registered voters. They overwhelmingly voted for their Northern candidate. Also, the low number (4%) of "Igbo-leaning" voters that supported the APC depicts the influence of the tribal tendencies of Nigerian voters. Since there was no significant ideological differences between the two candidates (and the two parties), it became an election of tribes. The Yoruba-leaning states split their vote evenly between both parties (Figures 2 and 3).
Based on Figure 2, I pose this question: If General Buhari contests the 2019 elections and has the same accomplishments as Goodluck Jonathan, can he be removed from power? That answer is not definite. Because, as long as he has the North, he shall be difficult to oust.
Fill the comments box!
Terminology: The "Igbo leaning" are states in the South-east and South-south. The "Yoruba leaning" are states in the South-west. The "Hausa/Fulani" leaning are states in the North-central, North-west, and North-east. Actual voting numbers from 2015 election were used
Disclaimer: a) I rooted for the APC during the 2015 election. b) All the voting numbers used to make the plot were obtained from ChannelsTV. c) Of course, I ignored the fact that each of these states has different concentration of the different tribal groups within.
It is official now. The General has replaced Goodluck. I am too excited that Nigeria's democracy has matured to the point where an incumbent can be removed from office. Since I love numbers, I collated all the voting numbers to see how the All Progressives Congress (APC) won. The graphs shows that the North remains all-powerful.
Figure 1. Percentage of registered voters from the different political zones (2015 election).
Of the APC voters, the Hausa/Fulani leaning states contributed about 80% (Figure 2) of the total APC vote. 80%! This shows that the Muslim-dominated North was mainly responsible for bringing APC to power. This is despite the fact that the Hausa/Fulani consist of 58% of registered voters. They overwhelmingly voted for their Northern candidate. Also, the low number (4%) of "Igbo-leaning" voters that supported the APC depicts the influence of the tribal tendencies of Nigerian voters. Since there was no significant ideological differences between the two candidates (and the two parties), it became an election of tribes. The Yoruba-leaning states split their vote evenly between both parties (Figures 2 and 3).
Figure 2. Data showing where the APC got their votes (2015 election).
Figure 3. Data showing where the PDP got their votes (2015 election).
Based on Figure 2, I pose this question: If General Buhari contests the 2019 elections and has the same accomplishments as Goodluck Jonathan, can he be removed from power? That answer is not definite. Because, as long as he has the North, he shall be difficult to oust.
Fill the comments box!
Terminology: The "Igbo leaning" are states in the South-east and South-south. The "Yoruba leaning" are states in the South-west. The "Hausa/Fulani" leaning are states in the North-central, North-west, and North-east. Actual voting numbers from 2015 election were used
Disclaimer: a) I rooted for the APC during the 2015 election. b) All the voting numbers used to make the plot were obtained from ChannelsTV. c) Of course, I ignored the fact that each of these states has different concentration of the different tribal groups within.
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