Did the Igbos hedge the wrong bet?

The 2015 Nigerian elections have been nothing short of exciting. I was glued to Channels TV during the entire election process. I know many people were. Never before has the recitation of random numbers being so exciting!

My first thoughts when the results were revealed was mainly on the Igbo and Igbo-leaning states. Here, I consider these Igbo leaning states to be the South-south and South-east states. As the graph below shows, the Igbos almost unanimously supported the PDP, and despite that, the PDP lost. About 90 percent of the Igbos voted for the PDP, and they accounted for over 50 percent of the PDP votes (see previous post). When it comes to national elections, it's hard for the Igbos to make a significant dent. They just don't have the numbers.

Figure 1. Percentage of each tribal group voting for each party. Shows that over 90% of Igbo-leaning voters voted for the PDP.*

Why does this matter?

This is because in a time of fair elections (at least two dominant parties), it makes no logistical sense for a national party to nominate an Igbo for president. As long as there is a Northerner who can garner his Northern brethren and then split the Yoruba vote, he will win. The odds are against the Igbo candidate. Winning the Igbo vote and splitting the Yoruba vote doesn't work (the 2015 election is an example).

This is the reason I believe the Igbos hedged all their bets on the PDP. If the PDP won, Nigeria would largely remain a one-party state. If the PDP continues their rotation policy (where the presidential candidate is rotated from the different political zones), then an Igbo presidential candidate can eventually emerge. Over 90% of Igbo leaning states voted PDP! I don't think they voted because they all loved Jonathan (some definitely did). They voted that way because having only one dominant party with a rotation policy was the easiest way to Aso Rock.

How can we have an Igbo president then?

But, the Igbos hedged the wrong bet. The days of a one party state looks to be over now. For an Igbo president to emerge, he/she has to be ideologically different. He cannot afford to run an election where the only difference between him and his opponent is his tribal group. The Northerner would always come out on top. In addition to having a very different ideology, he/she must also have done something in the North. By this I mean, he was a minister in a Northern state or acted in some high level position in the North. This can give him the exposure to engender some Northern votes. OR get a high level (and popular) Northern figure as the vice presidential candidate. If an Igbo candidate were to get Sanusi Lamido Sanusi as the vice presidential candidate, then that presidential ticket has a great chance.


Some will say "why does it matter to have an Igbo president? We are ONE Nigeria." To simply answer that, it matters. An entire region cannot be neglected when it comes to choosing the country's leaders. The last Igbo Nigerian leader was General Aguiyi-Ironsi, who ruled for 194 days, and the Igbo leader before that was the ceremonial president Nnamdi Azikiwe.




*Igbo refers to all voters from South-east and South-south political zones. Yoruba refers to all voters from South-west. Hausa refers to all voters from North-west/central/east. Also, other political parties other than PDP and APC were not considered. Of course, I ignored the fact that the states in these voting regions have different composition of trial groups within.