The all-powerful North

It has been almost two years since my last blog post. But, the Nigerian elections have been too captivating for me to lay shallow for too long. I will be discussing some of my thoughts regarding the elections and what it means for our future.

It is official now. The General has replaced Goodluck. I am too excited that Nigeria's democracy has matured to the point where an incumbent can be removed from office. Since I love numbers, I collated all the voting numbers to see how the All Progressives Congress (APC) won. The graphs shows that the North remains all-powerful.

Figure 1. Percentage of registered voters from the different political zones (2015 election).

Of the APC voters, the Hausa/Fulani leaning states contributed about 80% (Figure 2) of the total APC vote. 80%! This shows that the Muslim-dominated North was mainly responsible for bringing APC to power. This is despite the fact that the Hausa/Fulani consist of 58% of registered voters. They overwhelmingly voted for their Northern candidate. Also, the low number (4%) of "Igbo-leaning" voters that supported the APC depicts the influence of the tribal tendencies of Nigerian voters. Since there was no significant ideological differences between the two candidates (and the two parties), it became an election of tribes. The Yoruba-leaning states split their vote evenly between both parties (Figures 2 and 3).

Figure 2. Data showing where the APC got their votes  (2015 election).

Figure 3. Data showing where the PDP got their votes (2015 election).

Based on Figure 2, I pose this question: If General Buhari contests the 2019 elections and has the same accomplishments as Goodluck Jonathan, can he be removed from power? That answer is not definite. Because, as long as he has the North, he shall be difficult to oust.

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Terminology: The "Igbo leaning" are states in the South-east and South-south. The "Yoruba leaning" are states in the South-west. The "Hausa/Fulani" leaning are states in the North-central, North-west, and North-east. Actual voting numbers from 2015 election were used


Disclaimer: a) I rooted for the APC during the 2015 election. b) All the voting numbers used to make the plot were obtained from ChannelsTV. c) Of course, I ignored the fact that each of these states has different concentration of the different tribal groups within.